Market Analysis - Jan 18, 2012

Market gapped higher after a strong overnight rally and was signalling a breakout which I believe many got trapped into and then for the whole day it was a choppy session after session with nothing happening.

A strong breakout happens with a stampede. A gap open and GO is the trademark. Everything and I mean everything is bought (I will point out a day when that happens). This kind of thing happens from oversold conditions or some long 10+ day of consolidation around a moving average. But that kind of trademark was not even present.

As pointed out before, the negative seasonal pattern is taking hold of the market  and hopefully tomorrow the Seasonal Ghosts comes out to haunt the breakout bulls.

The breadth numbers were nicely positive today. with Advances as high as 2405 and decliners as low as 142 and finally settling the day at 1841 vs 1151. The 4% breadth numbers are also up 129 / 84 (from patientfisherman.com)

VIX went higher to converge with his big brother VX which would have frusturated the volatility traders also and people trying to scalp VIX would have lost money.

In summary, the market uptrend is not dented at all proven by our trusty EMA clouds. (The same kind of study is used by www.wizards.com for such a higher price.)

As the seasonal bias sets in, I am more concerned about the overbought condition, the bullish sentiments on blogosphere.

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Markets trying to breakout of the Volatile Loop

This week markets really snapped back on BEARS and within span of a week.. took the indices up almost  7.32% on SPX and DJI up 7.02%.

The Volatitily Index (VIX) also sufffered (-20.16%) when this move happened and the spread and slope of VIX   vs VXX (VIX Futures) have not become more milder. Before in Oct and November they futures were selling at discount and have a negative slope indicating market risk and fear.

On the moving average also VIX closed right there on its 30 Week MA or 150 day MA.. This is very positive indication.  Once the market moves above the sloping resistance

Here are the ETFs that made giant strides in last 5 days. I have been sitting out after that Oct 27 giant move up as it was very unexpected and then it was followed by lots of smashdowns in November. I lost a little bit in November around (2K) and have been on sides. Now with markets trying to become normal, I will start tip toeing back into markets.