Friday, September 30, 2011

Worst Quarter since 2009

This quarter has been the worst since 2009, If you cannot watch the market on hourly or less basis, there is no need to trade during these crazy swings. 


As you all know, Market has it own way of hurting the most people in the worst possible way.  There is lot of pumping up and down that happens especially at the end of the day or during the last trading hour apart from overnight foreign markets trading the futures and making things worse.


Also there is lot of pessimism building up slowly and steadily. The markets is starting to get more bears than bulls. The sentiment indicators and overall common man talks  are now bearish so we know that we are nearing the extreme zone.. VIX the fear indicator is also near its extreme zone but the VIX futures (the prices of VIX are based on futures) has very bearish look since beginning of this down move and even while we are in extreme territory the posture is not improving.  So we have to remain cautious.


As always.. we allow the markets to prove itself before we start front running it. There is no need to catch the falling knife. Just as markets melt up and there are extreme moves.. falling markets can remain in the extreme zones for a while causing total capitulation.


So even though most of the indicators are telling that we are close to bottom we need to listen to the king of all THE PRICE ACTION of the indices and price action of VIX futures. 


Some of my colleagues are down 35% in their 401k  and IRA accounts and for them I have only one piece of advise. Learn to listen to markets and take a vow to Never ever get hurt again like that, otherwise History will repeat itself and you will be weeping many more times.


Good Luck.


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