Showing posts with label VIX. Show all posts
Showing posts with label VIX. Show all posts

Wednesday, January 18, 2012

Market Analysis - Jan 18, 2012


Market gapped higher after a strong overnight rally and was signalling a breakout which I believe many got trapped into and then for the whole day it was a choppy session after session with nothing happening.
A strong breakout happens with a stampede. A gap open and GO is the trademark. Everything and I mean everything is bought (I will point out a day when that happens). This kind of thing happens from oversold conditions or some long 10+ day of consolidation around a moving average. But that kind of trademark was not even present.
As pointed out before, the negative seasonal pattern is taking hold of the market  and hopefully tomorrow the Seasonal Ghosts comes out to haunt the breakout bulls.
The breadth numbers were nicely positive today. with Advances as high as 2405 and decliners as low as 142 and finally settling the day at 1841 vs 1151. The 4% breadth numbers are also up 129 / 84 (from patientfisherman.com)
VIX went higher to converge with his big brother VX which would have frusturated the volatility traders also and people trying to scalp VIX would have lost money.
In summary, the market uptrend is not dented at all proven by our trusty EMA clouds. (The same kind of study is used by www.wizards.com for such a higher price.)
As the seasonal bias sets in, I am more concerned about the overbought condition, the bullish sentiments on blogosphere.
Posts copied from premium members site (www.bigbullbigbear.com)

Wednesday, September 7, 2011

Waiting for Longer term setup

As I said today, this is not a good time to deploy long term capital. Yes for short term bear rallies, you can deploy very strategically and bail out with profits or small losses but for longer term account, patience pays at this junction.


You want VIX to come down to 25 levels and cross below its 150 day MA. If you go back and study most of the rallies have started when VIX crossed its 150 day MA.

So patience is the name of the game. We will soon have our way.. 

Thursday, October 21, 2010

TUG OF WAR



The markets were again rescued by the FED helicopters and High Frequency Computers.

The bulls tried to take the markets up this morning breaking the 1184 levels on SP-500 and then Bears came back and took it down. The HFT computers were favoring the Bears this afternoon.

Again after 2.00 pm, the HFT computers changed sides and started supporting Bulls..


Here is another picture that shows what needs to happen for us to become BULLS again. Also remember we are not BEARS either as of now..