Friday, September 9, 2011

Caution Ahead... Obama and his crew fail to jolt the markets.

Obama's job jolt is not working right now. May be on Monday when he announces actual numbers of the plan, it may help. Otherwise we will have to wait for Congress's vote on tug of war. 

Meanwhile  watching very carefully here.... If we break 1140 on SPX would be very bad. So plan your trade and trade to your plan.


Wednesday, September 7, 2011

Waiting for Longer term setup

As I said today, this is not a good time to deploy long term capital. Yes for short term bear rallies, you can deploy very strategically and bail out with profits or small losses but for longer term account, patience pays at this junction.


You want VIX to come down to 25 levels and cross below its 150 day MA. If you go back and study most of the rallies have started when VIX crossed its 150 day MA.

So patience is the name of the game. We will soon have our way.. 

Picture Perfect Set up Yesterday (for short term rally)

After last week's debacle on jumper trade and yesterday's scary open,  I was scared of market both going long and short.  But after some good coffee and good analysis, I regained my footing and sense.
Some of you know that I went long last night with deep in the money SPY calls and today morning I  sold 1/2 position on the Gap open.

Here is the setup I looked at last night..

Tick study started ringing bells 20 mins before close. There was constant ding ding.


SPY was forming very bullish setup on hourly and then daily was forming a hammer pattern that we have talked about so many times now.


This setup made me go long with tight stop below 8 EMA and I was hoping for a gap open which I got.
I am also looking at TLT short setup this morning.

I am long DBA in ETF portfolio . Also holding some long positions in MOS, IP and HD and AMZN. I am short Autodesk will cover today. Also these are all short term trades. I am only 10% invested in IRA and 401K right now. No need to initiate long positions till VIX comes to 25 levels or meets its 150 d SMA which currently is at 21.37. I expect them to meet at 25-26 levels where they have met historically.

Please e-mail me on marketing1977@gmail if you need TICK study for TOS platform.

Wednesday, August 31, 2011

Getting Ready for some Bull Thrust..

Sorry for the late post. I have been travelling all last week and did not get to post my views and observations. 
Last Friday we finally got out breadth thrust and our reliable indicator crossed its 10 day MA to give us our BUY signal.



Friday was also our Bull thrust day with 90% Up day..


It is also very unusual to see multiple bull thrust day without without a sharp downward reaction – at least for a day.  That may be coming up in this week and that might the the last arsenal in the Bear camp.
We have got above the 1210 area which is 20 day MA. and are holding above. We might see a sharp down day which might take us back to test that 1210 area and relieve some overbought conditions that exits now.

VIX is nearly and dearly hanging on 32 area and any moves below would indicate the bull are in full control and will try to take the SPX to 1250 area where the 50 day MA.


I went long  with 1% risk on AAPL and DBA.  I went long 10% in 401K also yesterday.

Lets see what the Jumper trade of 1st Sept brings to the market. Going by history a bit, last year we had the super jumper on 1st Sept which started the new bull move upwards. So can we have Market GODS shower us with same kind of  move ?

Time will tell..  Plan your trades and Trade to your plan.





Tuesday, August 9, 2011

Train Wreck and Waiting for Clean up Crew and Offense team.

Now the train wreck has decimated everything except for Gold. We should be patient here to wait for the uptown express to arrive. Also watch out you gold bugs, this is very crowded trade ready to fall off the cliff. So tighten your stops if you are long Gold.

Looking at the NYSE bullish percent Index numbers, we can see that we have gone from one goal post (80 levels) to another goal post (30 levels). Bulls scored the goal to 80 and now bears have made their goal by hitting the goal (30 levels).



Dorsey in his book Point and Figure charting explained how to read this Bullish percent Index chart..
*****************************************************************

The chart above is similar to football play.  This chart is my way of demonstrating how we view the
market as a football game where the play shifts from offense to defense throughout the game.

 The first thing an investor must know before investing any money is whether the offensive team or defensive team is on the field.In a football game, two forces operate on the field at any one time, offense and defense. The same forces act in the marketplace. There are times when the market is supporting higher prices and times when the market is not supporting higher prices. When the market is supporting higher prices, you have possession of the ball. You have the offensive team on the field. When you have the ball, your job is to take as much money away from the market as possible; this is when you must try to score. During times when the market is not supporting higher prices, you have in essence lost the ball  and must put the defensive team on the field. During such periods, the market’s job is to take as much money away from you as possible.

Think for a moment about your favorite football team. How well would they do this season if they operated with only the offensive team on the field in every game? They might do well when they had possession of the ball, but when the opposing team had the ball, your team would be scored on at will. The net result is your season would be lackluster at best. This is the problem most investors have. They don’t know where the game is being played, much less which team is on the field. Let’s face it, most American investors only buy stocks, they never sell short. The market is fair.

It has something for everyone. It goes up and it goes down. The NYSE Bullish Percent signals when the environment is ripe for offense or defense. I want to stress that there is a time to play offense and a time to play defense. You must know which is which.
*************************************************************************

Monday, August 8, 2011

Train Wreck continue to fall off the bridge..

Couple of notes

- Nasty Head and Shoulders pattern in action.. on 15 min.. on hourly, On daily and on Weekly..
- Vix Runinng exponentiall.

Finally on Friday.. cashed 1/2 of my VIX calls.

Now we are in the drastic oversold territory.. I would expect a bear market rally soon. So keep your relative strength stocks ETFs list ready.



Wednesday, August 3, 2011

Pivot Point Study for ThinkorSwim


Here is the study for Pivot Study. Its by default gives you weekly Pivots


# #############################
# Big Bull and Big Bear LLC
# Date: 12/01/2007
###############################
input marketThreshold = 0.0025;
input timeFrame = {default Week, DAY, "2 DAYS", "3 DAYS", "4 DAYS", MONTH, "OPT EXP"};
input showOnlyToday = no;
input applyLevelsFilter = yes;


rec marketType = {default NEUTRAL,"DISABLED",  BEARISH, BULLISH};


def PP2 = high(period = timeFrame)[2] + low(period = timeFrame)[2] + close(period = timeFrame)[2];


marketType = if !applyLevelsFilter then marketType.DISABLED else
if PP2[-1] > (PP2[-1] + PP2 + PP2[1]) / 3 + marketThreshold then marketType.BULLISH else
if PP2[-1] < (PP2[-1] + PP2 + PP2[1]) / 3 - marketThreshold then marketType.BEARISH else marketType.NEUTRAL;


plot R3;
plot R2;
plot R1;
plot RR;
plot PP;
plot SS;
plot S1;
plot S2;
plot S3;


if showOnlyToday and !IsNaN(close(period = timeFrame)[-1])
then {
    R1 = Double.NaN;
    R2 = Double.NaN;
    R3 = Double.NaN;
    PP = Double.NaN;
    S1 = Double.NaN;
    S2 = Double.NaN;
    S3 = Double.NaN;
} else {
    PP = (high(period = timeFrame)[1] + low(period = timeFrame)[1] + close(period = timeFrame)[1]) / 3;
    R1 = 2 * PP - low(period = timeFrame)[1];
    R2 = PP + high(period = timeFrame)[1] - low(period = timeFrame)[1];
    R3 = R2 + high(period = timeFrame)[1] - low(period = timeFrame)[1];
    S1 = 2 * PP - high(period = timeFrame)[1];
    S2 = PP - high(period = timeFrame)[1] + low(period = timeFrame)[1];
    S3 = S2 - high(period = timeFrame)[1] + low(period = timeFrame)[1];
}


RR = if (marketType == marketType.BEARISH or marketType == marketType.NEUTRAL) then R1 else R2;
SS = if (marketType == marketType.BULLISH or marketType == marketType.NEUTRAL) then S1 else S2;


RR.setHiding(!applyLevelsFilter);
R1.setHiding(applyLevelsFilter);
R2.setHiding(applyLevelsFilter);
R3.hide();
SS.setHiding(!applyLevelsFilter);
S1.setHiding(applyLevelsFilter);
S2.setHiding(applyLevelsFilter);
S3.hide();


PP.SetDefaultColor(GetColor(0));
R1.SetDefaultColor(GetColor(5));
R2.SetDefaultColor(GetColor(5));
R3.SetDefaultColor(GetColor(5));
S1.SetDefaultColor(GetColor(6));
S2.SetDefaultColor(GetColor(6));
S3.SetDefaultColor(GetColor(6));


SS.DefineColor("S1", GetColor(6));
SS.DefineColor("S2", GetColor(6));
SS.AssignValueColor(if SS == S1 then SS.color("S1") else SS.color("S2"));


RR.DefineColor("R1", GetColor(5));
RR.DefineColor("R2", GetColor(5));
RR.AssignValueColor(if RR == R1 then RR.color("R1") else RR.color("R2"));


PP.SetStyle(Curve.SHORT_DASH);
RR.SetStyle(Curve.SHORT_DASH);
R1.SetStyle(Curve.SHORT_DASH);
R2.SetStyle(Curve.SHORT_DASH);
R3.SetStyle(Curve.SHORT_DASH);
SS.SetStyle(Curve.SHORT_DASH);
S1.SetStyle(Curve.SHORT_DASH);
S2.SetStyle(Curve.SHORT_DASH);
S3.SetStyle(Curve.SHORT_DASH);


def paintingStrategy = if timeframe == timeframe.WEEK then PaintingStrategy.DASHES else if timeFrame == timeFrame.MONTH then PaintingStrategy.Dashes else PaintingStrategy.DASHES;


PP.SetPaintingStrategy(paintingStrategy, yes);
RR.SetPaintingStrategy(paintingStrategy, yes);
R1.SetPaintingStrategy(paintingStrategy, yes);
R2.SetPaintingStrategy(paintingStrategy, yes);
R3.SetPaintingStrategy(paintingStrategy, yes);
SS.SetPaintingStrategy(paintingStrategy, yes);
S1.SetPaintingStrategy(paintingStrategy, yes);
S2.SetPaintingStrategy(paintingStrategy, yes);
S3.SetPaintingStrategy(paintingStrategy, yes);